Forex Analysis & Reviews: 04.04.2025 - US stock market on April 4:...

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04.04.2025 11:13 AM

US stock market on April 4: SP500 and NASDAQ suffering heavy losses

As a result of yesterday's regular session, US stock indices closed in the red. The S&P 500 plummeted by 4.84%, while the Nasdaq 100 lost 5.97%. The industrial Dow Jones dropped by 3.98%. All of this is a reaction to the tariffs announced by Trump.

Today, Asian indices fell to their lowest level in two months, reacting to the crash of the US stock market, which lost about $2.5 trillion. President Donald Trump's tariff shock, implemented once in a century, prompted investors to reassess their risk evaluations.

Today, futures for US and European stock indices dropped by 0.2% to 0.4%. The dollar continued to decline, and the yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds sank below the closely watched 4% level again on Friday.

The exceptional US trade policies, where America surpasses the rest of the world, arouse concerns that the sharpest tariff hikes by the US in a century will harm economic growth. Investors, who had long bet on the resilience of the US economy, are now revising their positions, considering the potential consequences of protectionist policies. Concerns about US tariffs are driven by their potential impact on global supply chains and international trade. Tariff hikes could lead to higher consumer prices, fading competitiveness for US exporters, and slower economic growth both in the US and abroad. Moreover, US trade policy raises concerns about long-term consequences for the global economic system. Undermining multilateral trade agreements and escalating trade disputes could lead to the fragmentation of the world economy and reduce the effectiveness of international trade.

The ongoing sell-off is also creating an unstable backdrop for today's US employment report and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, which are expected to set the tone for markets already concerned about the outlook for the world's largest economy.

Yesterday, Trump stated that he is open to lowering his tariffs if other countries can offer something phenomenal, which suggests that the White House is open to negotiations, despite the insistence of some high-ranking officials. However, this did little to calm the markets, as everyone expects retaliatory tariffs, not negotiations and concessions from US trade partners. Economists say that Trump's measures are likely to end up with inflation acceleration in the US in the short term, slower economic growth, and even a recession.

Meanwhile, in the commodities market, oil continued its sharp decline after OPEC+ unexpectedly tripled its planned supply increase for May. Gold stabilized after falling from its record high.

As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, the decline continues. The main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance at 5,399. This would help continue the upward trend and open the possibility for a jump to the next level at 5,443. Equally important for the bulls will be maintaining control over 5,483, which would strengthen the buyers' positions. In the case of a downward move amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around 5,356. A breakout would quickly push the instrument back to 5,318 and open the way to 5,282.

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.